Contrarian means opposing or rejecting popular opinion; going against the current practice. Being a contrarian in fantasy football is difficult because it’s not chalk as the DFS kids would call it today. Your gut may not be agreeing with the decision but it’s necessary because a wide range of outcomes is possible during a single football game. The comparison for being contrarian this year in a startup draft would be drafting Jameson Williams or Jonathan Taylor. Risk is involved, but it could be a league winning selection. Contrarian is where the big money is made within DFS, especially in large tournaments because you’ll be submitting more unique lineups than your competitors.
Do mix in one or two of these players within a lineup to maximize individuality.
Do not create your entire lineup based on the contrarian picks below.
Key for charts:
- Player = recommended contrarian play
- Opponent = Home or away and the opponent
- FD Roster % = This week's FanDuel roster percentages
- FD Salary = FanDuel salary to roster the player
- DK Roster % = This week's DraftKings roster percentages
- DK Salary = DraftKings salary to roster the player
The fall from grace was unexpected for Russell Wilson in 2022 after being traded to Denver. Is Wilson washed? Or can new Head Coach Sean Payton resurrect Wilson’s career? We’ll find out soon in the 2023 season as Denver will host a Raiders defensive unit that finished bottom 5 in the NFL last season and produced the second least efficient passing defense. Wilson could have more time in the pocket as Raiders star pass rusher Chandler Jones is out for the game. The limited practice sessions from Jerry Jeudy created an unexpected hope that he could add a dynamic weapon for Wilson on Sunday as well.
The Los Angeles Rams appear to be in rebuild mode with only three good players on the team, one of whom, Cooper Kupp, won’t play in week 1. However, I struggle counting out a great offensive play-caller in Head Coach Sean McVay and Matt Stafford, who is now healthy and has produced large fantasy numbers over his career. While Seattle has a good defense, they’re also dealing with some injuries in the secondary with Jamal Adams missing multiple practices and Devon Witherspoon being limited.
The Steelers have a good defensive front and Minkah Fitzpatrick is a star in the secondary. However, the cornerbacks are less than stellar and it’s easy to envision offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan dialing up advantageous play calls to take advantage of the weakness. Brock Purdy is back to full health and has great weapons at his disposal. Do you believe in the Purdy magic we saw in 2022? I remember people doubting Tom Brady after his first Super Bowl and Purdy gives me the same kind of vibes.
The Minnesota Vikings defense is one of the least talented defenses in the NFL and one of their best pass rushers, Marcus Davenport, is questionable to play. New defensive coordinator Brian Flores is going to blitz to attempt to bandaid this unit, which leaves it vulnerable to big plays. Mike Evans and Chris Godwin should dominate when given any opportunity. The Vikings passing offense could create a high-scoring contest as well. All of this sets the stage for Baker Mayfield to pass the ball often with very good matchups.
The Panthers defense star DE Brian Burns returned to practice this week, but wasn’t happy with his contract situation and could still not play on Sunday. The Falcons identity is bullying defensive fronts with their elite offensive line and using play action to take calculated shot plays down the field. Giving Desmond Ridder extra time to throw to Drake London and Kyle Pitts sounds like a good opportunity with the Falcons playing at home. The Panthers offense doesn’t inspire confidence, which could lead to shorter fields and more possessions for Ridder as well.
Josh Jacobs averaged over 23 touches per game in 2022. The Broncos have a good defense, but their biggest question marks are up front in terms of talent and depth. The Raiders only chance in this game is to use a heavy dose of Jacobs, who is plenty motivated after not receiving the long-term contract this off-season. The last time Jacobs played in the last year of his contract, like he will in 2023, he led the NFL in rushing yards.
The Green Bay Packers were 31st in DVOA rush defense in 2022 and they allowed 6.7 YPC to Chicago QB and RBs in both games last year. Rashan Gary is the Packers best run defender on the line and he’s rumored to be on a pitch count for week 1 as he recovers from an ACL injury. The Packers made minimal upgrades to their run defense, while Chicago beefed up their offensive line in the off-season. Khalil Herbert won the starting job in training camp and was 10th in the NFL in rushing yards per carry over expectation in 2023.
While the Packers offensive line is better at pass protection, they face one of the worst defensive lines in Chicago on Sunday. Enter Aaron Jones, who has been one of the most efficient runners since he entered the NFL. Christian Watson has been ruled out and Romeo Doubs is questionable to play in week 1. I’d expect the Packers to focus heavily on the run game and utilizing Jones in the passing game to mask the lack of receivers available.
The Panthers injury report lists four WRs and they’re starting rookie Bryce Young in his first NFL game. The path for Miles Sanders to be the focal point of the offensive game plan is quite clear. Sanders should see a steady dose of carries and receptions to help provide Young with some weapons on passing downs. Carolina also has a juice matchup playing the Falcons defense, who finished the 2022 season ranked 30th in DVOA.
The Eagles listed four running backs as starters in alphabetical order for their depth chart. They also play a good Patriots defense in week 1 on the road. However, the Eagles have one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and it creates easy running lanes with the weapons they have on the outside pulling defenders out of the box and the threat of Jalen Hurts as well. D’Andre Swift is the most talented player in that position group and offers the best combination of runner and pass catcher.
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